Daily Analysis Markets Tank as Trump Fears Escalate


Thursday Market Recap

AssetCurrent ValueDaily Change
S&P 5002351-0.35%
WTI Crude Oil48.80-0.11%

Global stocks had their worst day since September on Wednesday, as the low-volatility levitation ended, with Donald Trump’s biggest scandal yet. One congressman already called for impeachment following the leaked words of the President, and that triggered a broad sell-off in risk assets and the US Dollar. All global indices suffered heavy losses, with the prior leaders, the NASDAQ and the DAX losing well over 2%. The benchmarks are trading lower again today, as the risk-off sentiment spread to the Asian markets, with the strength of the Yen adding to the losses. The Brazilian political crisis added to the worries today, as the Real and local stocks both plunged, delivering another blow for bulls.

The Yen charged higher in tandem with gold yesterday, with the US Dollar being hit hard. The USD/JPY pair got close to the 110 level today while, gold rose above $1260. Commodity-currencies are holding up relatively well against the USD, as crude oil is just slightly lower. The Pound got a boost from the better than expected British Retail Sales report, and it cleared the 1.30 hurdle against the Dollar in early trading. The Euro and the Swiss Franc also continues to appreciate compared to the USD, as the scandal weighs heavily on US assets.


Cryptocurrencies are broadly higher amid the stock sell-off, with NEM leading the way, being up by almost 50%. Bitcoin is still below its prior all-time high, but it remained stable, despite its lofty gains. Ethereum and Ethereum Classic are also in the green, as well as the other recently struggling majors, Dash, Monero, and Litecoin. Stellar is more than 10% higher today, while Ripple is consolidating just below yesterday’s highs. The total market capitalization of the coins passed $62 billion, as money continues to pour in to the segment. Bitcoin turned sharply higher this morning getting close to its recent all-time highs once again.

Bitcoin, Daily Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The NASDAQ quickly gave back several weeks of gains as its relative strength turned into underperformance during yesterday’s market rout. The internal weakness that we observed in the past week led to a widespread decline, as volatility exploded, with the VIX rising by 50% in one session, above the 15 level. The NASDAQ bounced off its short-term support after the market close yesterday, but today it easily broke below it, as the overnight rally faded. The short-term trend-line has also been broken, and the strong downside momentum suggests more losses for the broader market and the tech sector as well.

NASADQ, Daily Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CETCountryReleaseActualExpectedPrevious
1:50JAPANPrelim GDP-0.8%0.4%0.3%
3:30AUSTRALIAEmployment Change37,4004,00060,000
10:30UKRetail Sales2.3%1.2%-1.8%
14:30USInitial Jobless Claims232,000240,000236,000
14:30USPhilly Fed Index38.818.922.0

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CETCountryReleaseExpectedPrevious
14:30CANADACPI Index0.5%0.2%
14:30CANADACore Retail Sales0.2%0.1%
Mate Cser

Mate Cser

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.


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